Churn Isn’t Failure. It’s Our New Reality.

Only 9% of people are brand loyal. So why are we still building arts models that depend so heavily on loyalty?

And why are we shaming patrons who aren't?

In 2014, a major industry report highlighted a sharp drop in subscription rates. And it famously pronounced arts audiences "culturally promiscuous."

Arts leaders nodded along knowingly, blaming declining arts education, shrinking attention spans, and a general loss of cultural values. The field doubled down, with major funders like the Wallace Foundation leading the search for ways to rebuild loyalty.

But this isn’t an arts sector anomaly. It’s everywhere. Across industries, customer loyalty has unraveled:

Loyalty is (Almost) Dead

Only 9% of consumers say they're ‘brand loyalists.’ They don’t stick around out of habit anymore. A full 46% of consumers are more likely to try a new brand now than they were five years ago. And while the subscription market grew from $2T to $3T in 2024, the number of subscribers dropped 10%. (Nielsen, KPMG, SUBTA)

Loyalty isn’t dead—but it’s far less common, and far more conditional.

Christopher George, CEO of SubSummit, summed it up in SUBTA's 2024 annual report.

"You cannot expect a consumer to remain an active subscriber for years… priorities change, finances change, and you need to give your users the freedom to come and go.”

Today’s consumers engage when their needs are met. Then they move on. They’re not climbing a staircase. They dip in and out based on relevance.

Ever since the famed Oliver Wyman report brought churn into the spotlight, the arts sector has poured resources into solving it. But churn isn’t failure. It’s just... reality. It’s the natural result of a world where people engage based on need—not habit.

In fact, for industries that aren’t designed to solve daily needs, churn is a feature, not a flaw. (Think hotels, tourism, healthcare, entertainment.)

These sectors accept churn as inevitable—and build around staying top of mind for the next time the customer needs them.

You’ve likely seen Airbnb’s “Some trips are better in an Airbnb” ads—the ones with claymation dreamscapes, miniature bedrooms, and whimsical clarinet flourishes.

They're not selling brand loyalty—they're selling relevance.

They’re positioning for episodic need—the option to put your kids to bed without tiptoeing, more space to get ready during a girlfriend weekend, a solution to the limitations of the hotel experience.

Airbnb doesn’t expect you to come back next week—it just wants to be the obvious choice when the moment arises.

And this is our blueprint for how the arts stay essential.

Habitual Need vs. Episodic Need

It’s tempting to borrow benchmarks from habit-based industries—like coffee, groceries, fitness. These industries are solving daily needs. But the needs that arts experiences fulfill? They’re episodic. Transformational. Circumstantial.

Not habitual.

If you're trying to reduce churn without designing for top-of-funnel replenishment? You’re fighting human nature.

But if you’re worried about the 46% of consumers who are more likely to try a new brand today, think again.

This “promiscuity” is your saving grace.

Build a More Realistic Model

When we chase loyalty in a world that rewards relevance, we set ourselves up for chronic disappointment.

We build retention strategies for audiences who were never meant to stay. We spend precious time and funding trying to “re-engage” people who’ve already moved on—when we could be connecting with those who are actively seeking what we offer.

And over time, our teams get demoralized. Our models become brittle. We interpret churn as personal failure, when it’s actually a sign that the system itself is out of sync with reality.

There will always be some who stick around—and we should absolutely continue to nurture those journeys. But we also need a model that works when they don’t.

Because your model depends on habit, routine, or long-term commitment, and a shock like Covid or recession comes along? The model breaks.

I’m not saying ditch subscriptions. I’m saying we should evolve how we center them in our profit formula.

When your model is built on solving real needs through top-of-funnel replenishment, you can flex, adapt, and stay relevant. Without shaming people for how they engage.

And without feeling like you’ve failed when they don’t return. You haven’t.

You're just living in the real world.

So, take a breath. Stop working so hard to sell brand loyalty—start building for episodic relevance too.